Many political theorists and philosophers use Condorcet’s Jury Theorem to defend democracy. This article illustrates an uncomfortable implication of Condorcet’s Jury Theorem. Realistically, when the conditions of Condorcet’s Jury Theorem hold, even in very high stakes elections, having more than 100,000 citizens vote does no significant good in securing good political outcomes. On the Condorcet model, unless voters enjoy voting, or unless they produce some other value by voting, then the cost to most voters of voting exceeds the expected epistemic benefits to the common good of their casting a vote. Anyone who is committed to democracy on the basis of the Jury Theorem ought also to hold that widespread voting is wasteful, at least unless he or she can provide some further justification of mass democratic participation.
Condorcet’s Jury Theorem and the Optimum Number of Voters
Condorcet’s Jury Theorem and the Optimum Number of Voters
Recent Publications
- Common Law Liberalism: A New Theory of the Libertarian Society (Oxford University Press, 2024)
- “Diversity and Group Performance,” Encyclopedia of Diversity, Springer, 2024
- “Evading and Aiding: The Moral Case Against Paying Taxes,” with Christopher Freiman and Jessica Flanigan, Extreme Philosophy, ed. Stephen Hetherington, Routledge (2024)
- “Online Sports Betting Giants Place Their Bets Against Growing Rivals”
- “Liberal Tolerance for an Illiberal, Intolerant Age”
Recent News
- Office Hours: Evaluating the True Impact of Seemingly Good Acts
- Business as a Force for Good: MBA Students Support Hurricane Helene Victims Through Ethics Project
- New Editorial Team at Philosophy and Public Affairs
- Advocacy group concerned pay-for-plasma clinics expanding to Ontario will hurt voluntary donations
- Jason Brennan and Hélène Landemore, Debating Democracy (University of Zurich’s UBS Center, 2024)